PRINTIt’s the end of the world as we show it
Illustration: Kirby Moore
March 20, 2008 | 12:00 a.m. CST
Rather unexpectedly, two wildly different predictions on how the world will end have emerged within a month of each other. University of Sussex astronomer Robert Smith concluded that as the sun loses its fuel, it will expand and suck in Earth with its increased gravitational pull. Unfortunately, we only have 7.6 billion years to prepare for our imminent demise.
Or do we? In his film, Doomsday, which opened March 14, Neil Marshall postulates that a deadly virus called “The Reaper” will overtake our planet and eventually kill all its inhabitants if a cure is not found. However, the predictive track record of those working in Marshall’s field of apocalyptic films is lacking at best. Nuclear holocaust, alien invasions, global warming and asteroid collisions have failed to threaten humanity. But to be safe, Vox investigates the chances of these scenarios occurring.
Dr. Strangelove, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
How we die: Nuclear holocaust. U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper concocts a plan to fire nuclear weapons at the Soviet Union in order to prevent a perceived Communist scheme to taint the precious bodily fluids of Americans. Unfortunately, Russia has built a doomsday machine that, upon being attacked, will trigger nuclear explosions all over Earth and destroy all life. Oops.
Can it happen? The prospect of human extinction via nuclear weapons faces “probably fairly distant odds at this point,” says Marvin Overby, an MU political science professor. A total atomic destruction was more likely when the movie was made in 1964. “We’re probably more likely to see nuclear weapons used now than we were 20 or 30 years ago,” Overby says, “but their use would not necessarily trigger a holocaust as it might have 20 or 30 years ago.”
The Day After Tomorrow
How we die: Effects of global warming. Liberal Web site MoveOn.org claimed that The Day After Tomorrow was “the movie the Bush Administration doesn’t want you to see!” — though they might have confused Dubya’s cabinet with the movie critics who largely disparaged the flick. Regardless, the movie’s plot does have an environmental agenda: The melting of the polar ice caps affects the North Atlantic current and leads to disastrous ice storms and floods.
Can it happen? Some of the events shown in the film could happen — just not as quickly as depicted, says Tony Lupo, an MU associate professor of atmospheric science. “The overall cooling of climate could occur to the point where New York City is uninhabitable,” Lupo says, “but that would take decades and decades to achieve.” He also derides the movie’s overturning of the atmosphere as completely unrealistic because it would violate several laws of thermodynamics.
Mars Attacks!
How we die: Alien invasion. The title of Tim Burton’s campy movie — based on a set of 1962 trading cards — says it all. The 4-foot Martians with heads resembling human brains land on Earth and announce through a possibly faulty translation machine that they come in peace. They then proceed to deface historic landmarks, kill every human in sight and otherwise destroy Earth without explanation.
Can it happen? NASA media contact Dwayne Brown refuses to give odds because he and his employers “don’t like to speculate.” But on a personal note, he adds, “I don’t think that would happen.” Emphasizing that NASA is more concerned with asteroids than extraterrestrials, Brown says, “We’re more likely to be impacted by celestial bodies than be visited by alien entities.” Which brings us to …
Armageddon
How we die: Gigantic asteroid collision. After a series of small asteroids demolish the space shuttle Atlantis and wreak havoc in Finland and New York, NASA determines that an asteroid “the size of Texas” is headed towards our planet. If not stopped in 18 days, the asteroid will expunge all life on Earth.
Can it happen? What are the chances of this cataclysmic event? “From what we’ve been tracking, very minute,” Brown says. “It’s not an impossibility.” Luckily, NASA takes the threat seriously and tracks NEOs (Near-Earth Objects). University of Arizona professor of theoretical geophysics Jay Melosh says the impact will happen — but not for a long time. “The last time was 65 million years ago that we had an impact of that magnitude, and we will inevitably have another one in the future,” he says. “But the chance per year of 1 in 100 million is not a very high chance.”
